Downtowntrader.com

Using Technical Analysis of Charts to make money trading the stock market

Huge Gap Higher?

Right now we are set for a huge gap up tomorrow morning on the heels of the FNM and FRE news. I’m not sure if this will be an easy fade like it was last Monday, but I’m not buying it either. This is news that everyone expected, so why should this 2-3% gap stick. I won’t even get into the whether the Government should be intervening with the financial markets. It seems like they keep stepping in when the markets are in a precarious spot, but there will not be a bottom unless it occurs naturally.  If we get a sharp two or three day rally, it may set up some lower risk shorting opportunities. I will probably wait for the dust to settle down tomorrow before attempting any trades.

Good Trading,

Joey

Markets falling apart

Conditions are quickly deteriorating in the markets. I suspected that a trend would emerge this week once volume kicked in and boy has it. September and October have historically been negative months and it looks like 2008 will be no different. I’m actually seeing some long setups, but I’m in no hurry to step in front of this train. Right now the path of least resistance is lower, and even though the markets are already near term oversold, I prefer to stay short or look for short entries on any bounces. Not too much else to add really.

Good Trading,

Joey

Writing was on the wall

I posted last night that I had a hunch that whatever happened at the open, it would get faded rather quickly. The market gapped up right into daily resistance and set it’s highs in the first fifteen or twenty minutes of trading. As traders, we need to be aware of when the herd gangs up on the same side of the trade and be ready for the unavoidable reversal when the herd is all in. The easy trade was to buy hand over fist once New Orleans was spared, but as usual, the easy trade was way too obvious. So what happens next?

I can’t say I have the answer, but notice that the sell commodities theme I’ve been writing about held up today. Agriculture stocks got creamed today, and readers of this blog know it wasn’t a surprise. I would be extremely cautious if you are long any names in that space. I can’t say I have a crystal ball about tomorrow, but I think todays weakness should be respected until the S&P can get over 1300-1310 or until the Nasdaq resumes a leadership role.

Good Trading,

Joey

Gustav, Hannah, and Oil

Well, not sure how oil will react tomorrow, but I’m glad it looks like Gustav spared New Orleans of too much damage. It’s still early, because the storm surge is still flowing up the river, but it looks like the wide spread damage everyone feared didn’t happen. Having plenty of experience with hurricanes, I’m happy that most people will be able to get back home and have it waiting in one piece.

I actually had some oil positions open, but I didn’t take them due to any speculation on what would happen, they simply appeared on some scans a couple weeks ago, and they haven’t stopped out yet. My guess is that oil gaps lower, but with all the storm activity out there, it may hold up. I was thinking Hannah wouldn’t be an issue for us down here in South Florida, but there is still a chance it hits here, and worse, Ike and whatever else comes behind it, may have an impact too. We should find out more very soon.

Tomorrow should be very interesting, as the unknowns with Gustav are past us, and the return of most traders from vacation should bring in a surge in volume. It looks like futures are pointing to a slightly higher opening, but I would prefer to wait till after 10:00-10:30 before entering any trades. I have a hunch that whatever happens at the open will get faded pretty quickly.

Good Trading,

Joey

Sector Rotation Continues

I wrote this as part of my analysis on MOS tonight.

Well, I noticed quite early today that “Ag” stocks were showing weakness, as the general markets were exhibiting impressive strength. I also mentioned on a few occasions how early cycle sectors were starting to get some inflows and that late cycle sectors were being sold. It’s not as easy to pick up these rotations on a typical day, but on strong trending days these patterns tend to stick out. Today, while Financials and Transports rallied, Agriculture stocks were down.

I am starting to notice a pattern of strength in financials and transports on strong market days, coupled with weakness in AG, Oil, etc. I am starting to feel more comfortable in my hunch that early cycle sectors are being accumulated as late cycle sectors continue to be distributed. This doesn’t mean I think a bottom is in place, as I fully expect lower lows to be set, but we may be close to seeing the worst over in the financials. Accumulation takes a long time and what I suspect is that institutions are starting to build their positions by redistributing profits in commodity stocks. Of course this is just a theory, and I don’t trade off of theories. But if a trade setup aligns with my theory, then I give it more significance and trade it more aggresively.

Good Trading,

Joey

Return to Trading

I was in Philly over the past couple of days and was completely away from the markets. It’s probaby not a bad time to be away as volume is still generally thin and not much has happened. I had a few oil related plays on before I left and most of them are still in play, so I can’t complain. Next week should usher in normal levels of volume and hopefully we can get some trending action.

Good Trading,

Joey

It’s Alive!

I’ve mentioned how I’ve been working on an Auto Trading System previously, and so far it has gone really well. I’ve been testing some strategies over the past three months using a paper trading account and it has actually performed better then I expected. I feel very comfortable with the safety and reliability of all the components to the point that I feel I can leave the bot unattended for short periods of time. I could theoretically leave it unattended all the time, but I prefer to keep tabs on it in case some strange market condition appears that would trigger an excess of alerts.

I had been thinking of running an auto trading system for quite some time, due to several factors including having a full time career, my love for building and testing strategies, and the fact that automated trading aligns very well with my personality. Even my discretionary trading is very close to an automated system in how I enter and exit positions. I initially looked at all the different players in this field including tradestation, ninjatrader, aiq, and even building a bot from scratch, but my lack of programming skills made it difficult to get started. I had friends that were willing to help with the programming, leaving me to focus on trading strategies, but collaborating on ideas was cumbersome and time consuming at best.

Funny enough, a few months after I began my search, my friend Dave from stocktickr.com mentioned how he had arrived at a similar conclusion about adding auto trading to his arsenal and how he was working on a trading Bot that would interface with Trade-Ideas. He was open to allowing me to help him beta test the software for him and in the process, it was the perfect environment for me to build some strategies around a product that I already used and loved. Dave has really created a fantastic product that has some very unique features compared to some of the other products I have looked at. The components are as follows:

Stocktickr Trading Bot: The Bot is responsible for tying all the different components together and is the brains around the ATS. The Bot is where you create, edit, and run trading strategies. Trading strategies are centered around receiving an alert from the Trade-Ideas Software, using trade management rules such as position sizing and stop loss management created in the Bot, and rerouting the signals as orders in Interactive Brokers. Once positions are closed, the Bot logs every trade into a users Stocktickr journal. There are several options including what times to trade, how to manage risk, and how to alert yourself of trades. You can also have multiple exit orders such as a trailstop and timestops to close positions before the market closes. All full subscription users of stocktickr.com have access to the trading bot software.

Trade-Ideas Software: This is where the trading signals come from. Trade-Ideas is a real time market scanner that generates alerts based on the criteria you enter. There are several strategies prepackaged with the software and it’s fairly simple to create your own. The software lets you choose a predefined alert, and then you can customize it with numerous filters. There are several alerts to choose from, and while you can’t program your own, the folks at Trade-Ideas are always adding new ideas. Just recently they even added some fundamental data filters. Some may find it limiting that you can’t program indicator based strategies such as MACD crossovers and such, but I’ve found those basic strategies pretty flawed. The alerts you can build from Trade-Ideas are very powerful, and I would venture to say you could probably use some of the prepackaged alerts pretty successfully. I’ve been using this software for years now, and it’s fantastic. Here is a prior review.

Interactive Brokers TWS: This is simply the Interactive Brokers Trading Platform. It is responsible for all orders once they are passed by the Bot. The beauty of this setup, is that once the Bot hands the orders to TWS, they are live orders within TWS, and thus any disruptions such as a communications outage or a PC freezing have no impact on the orders. You don’t have to worry about resynching, or resubmitting orders, as they are live server side orders. The Bot communicates via the Interactive Brokers TWS API.

Trade-Ideas Oddsmaker: Oddsmaker is the software used to backtest any idea created with the Trade-Ideas product. You can test several exit strategies to verify if an idea is worth pursuing. Typically, I brainstorm for an idea then run it through the oddsmaker. If it shows promise, I will test several exit strategies, and if it makes it this far, it is a candidate for forward testing with the Bot. As a side note, the nice thing about using Interactive Brokers, is that they have a paper trading feature where you can test with real time data and fills. It will reject a short sale if shares are not available, account for slippage, etc.

Stocktickr Journal: I’ve written about stocktickr before, and this is where I log every single trade I make. It tracks all the stats I need to keep tabs on my trading systems such as expectancy, win rate, and net profit. Keeping a journal is one of the most important things you need to grow as a trader. I wrote an article a while back about how important keeping a journal is here.

* You can also configure the Bot to send signals to Medved’s Quotetracker software. I don’t currently use Quotetracker, but I can see this as a very useful feature.

To summarize, the basic requirements are using Interactive Brokers as your broker, subscribing to stocktickr.com and subscribing to the Trade-Ideas software.

I’ve been calling my bot Frankenstein and I brought him to life last week. So far it has been decent, with a gain of 4R’s in 3 days. More importantly, there have been no snags so far in live mode. There have been small issues here and there, mostly related to the bot logging the trades into the journal. The biggest issue I had in test mode was a trade that didn’t close, but that was a problem with AMEX executing the order and even canceling the orders and resubmitting manual orders didn’t work.

Of course there are pro’s and con’s regarding any product and some of the limitations with this setup are as follows:

At this point Interactive Brokers is the only supported broker. This was not an issue for me as this was my broker of choice anyways.

You can’t program your own strategy like in TradeStation, however, the ease of creating strategies trumps this limitation in my eyes.

There are no portfolio management options like limiting total capital used, although you can sort of rig it my limiting how many concurrent positions can be opened per strategy.

Some of the pros include:

Live orders at the broker.

Extensive statistics available with stocktickr.com

Very stable platform (all applications) with very fast executions from alert to journal entry.

Very inexpensive for having a complete trading BOT with no programming required.

I think anyone interested in building an ATS should check out this suite of tools. Through the affiliate links below, readers of downtowntrader.com can sign up for 7 day trials of Stocktickr and Trade-Ideas. Even if you have no interest in auto trading, each of these are spectacular products and deserve a test run.

Sign up here for your free trial of stocktickr.com

Sign up here for your free trial of Trade-Ideas

If anyone has specific questions regarding any of the tools, please feel free to post them in the comments section.  If I don’t know the answer, I can forward the question to the respective companies.

Good Trading,

Joey

Market pullback

I’m sort of on the fence on what to expect the next few days. On the one hand, I’ve been bullish for a while now, but the markets have risen enough that they could take a breather, and quite possibly top out. I don’t expect them to resume the downtrend just yet, but I’m ready for it, if it happens. Another reason I’m half expecting some weakness is the sell gold and oil trade is getting crowded and probably ready for a bounce and the dollar is right into resistance. A bounce in oil should impact the markets negatively, even if only for a few days.  However, I’ve been and am currently of the opinion that oil has topped out for now. So unless something dramatic happens, I will be looking to get short the oil and commodity stocks on any decent strength.

Good Trading,

Joey

More Market rotation


I’ve commented recently about an influx of money into biotechs, pharmaceuticals, and medical stocks. I am also seeing a continuation of the years prior rotation into transports. Rails, Truckers, and Airlines have all recieved a good portion of the AG, Mining, and Tech outflows recently and could be nicely positioned for any upcoming rallies. The bottom may already be in for some of these stocks as well, as they are an early cycle sector. For thos unfamiliar with sector rotation cycles, I suggest reading any book by John Murphy or Martin Pring on the subject. These themes are playing out to a tee, as money flows out of commodities (late cycle sector) and into financials and transports. Incidentally these sectors are “early bull” although they often begin to bottom out and begin fresh bull markets as the general markets continue the bottoming process. I don’t generally like giving advice on longer term positioning as that is not my strong suit, but it wouldn’t be the craziest idea to position some longer term money into these sectors as the should have good relative strength moving forward.

Good Trading,

Joey

Fed Rally

Stock ripped higher today well before the Fed released their statement and then continued to surge higher after the release. However, after huge moves the indexes are basically back up to lateral resistance and while volume was higher then yesterday, it was nothing to write home about. Often it takes a few days for the markets to digest what the Fed had to say and then “price it in”, so I wouldn’t put too much into today’s move. I still like biotech, medical, and pharmaceuticals as leaders if the markets are going to rally here. Also, notice that commodity and AG stocks continued to roll over today. They may be the stocks to short for the next move lower whenever that occurs.

Good Trading,

Joey


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